Yesterday I went over and analyzed all of the Smash 4 pools at Evo, and just two days after they were released, the first round of revisions were released. If I’m not mistaken, we saw two total revisions last year, so I’d say it’s likely that we’ll see more to come, but it’s important to see what has changed thus far.
I do not have a specific changelog available, but did note all changes of notable placements within pools. Some players were swapped, and some pools were overall swapped. You can see the changes in my new Google Sheet of data here, where all changed predicted pool results in Round 1 are highlighted in orange: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WFWhZ-2Rg0IT-jLUrC2Yj-EXm21Ix8j-cslUsBYgknI/edit?usp=sharing
To recap, outside of some small precise seeding issues among the top 32, the biggest issues in the first revision of pools were:
- Ally being seeded far too low, coming in at about 31st where he should arguably be top 5.
- Xzax vs Rich Brown, two ranked Socal players playing each other early in Round 1.
- Ned, Wrath, and MJG all being in the same Round 1 pool, all very talented players and some of the best of their respective states.
- el, SS, and Pugwest all being in the same Round 1 pool, all very solid players capable of Top 64.
- Vinnie and Larry Lurr being in the same Round 1 pool, two players capable of Top 32 and one of them starting in losers right away.
- Mr. ConCon and Tearbear being in the same Round 1 pool, two highly ranked Socal players.
Some of these issues were fixed, but unfortunately, many more were created. While we now see Tearbear and Mr. ConCon split apart, as well as Xzax and Rich Brown, Rich Brown was replaced with Mr. E from New York, one of the most talented Marth mains in the country. I would still give the slight edge here to Xzax to make it out in winners, but having a considerably harder matchup than the previous Rich Brown, not to mention that Mr. E is certainly deserving of a 1 seed here in the first Round.
It seems that Nick Riddle and Sol from Florida were split apart into separate pools, now granting Sol a 1 seed in his pool, and leaving Nick Riddle uncontested. cyve was also moved away from Kamemushi, granting himself his own 1st seed, and being moved from the earliest pool slot to the latest.
As for our two death pools, neither of them were touched, and remain just as hard as ever. It’s likely we could see neither MJG nor Pugwest making it out of Round 1, two players who are arguably deserving of Top 64. Perhaps the biggest issue of Ally being remarkably seeded too low, has not been changed at all. I believe this should have priority over all else, though thankfully with the way the new bracket works out, he should still make it into the Top 8 losers side, though this time with a harder matchup in Komorikiri instead of Mr. R, where Sonic and Cloud will prove to be a much tougher matchup for Ally’s Mario instead of Sheik.
Now for the downside of these changes… Larry Lurr and Vinnie were split apart, but now Larry Lurr was moved into Tweek’s pool, who is currently ranked as an even better player than Vinnie! While this now gives Vinnie a shot at Top 32 in the loser’s side, Tweek will also be starting off in the losers side compared to the predicted Top 32 winners side before. Another surprising change is that Trela and K9sbruce have been moved into the same pool. Trela was previously matched up with Zenyou, and now has been moved into K9’s pool, another Socal player who is ranked even higher than Zenyou. While the edge still goes to Trela, this will grant an even harder matchup, and knock K9 down from his previous first seed.
With all changes considered and little shifts here and there, the top 32 bracket actually plays out quite differently now. While before we saw ZeRo vs Larry in Winners Quarters, it looks like the two are now slated to combat in Winners Semis Top 8. ZeRo’s new Winners Quarters match is slated to be Zinoto, provided he can take down VoiD. No matter the victor in this case, ZeRo should have the edge over both Zinoto and VoiD, so these bracket changes could be granting ZeRo a ride back into Top 8 as he hopes to match Mango’s 2nd consecutive Evo win.
With Larry’s shift away from Vinnie, he’ll now be fighting ANTi in Round 2 of pools, meaning ANTi will now have to fight his way through Top 32 in the losers bracket, where I previously predicted him to make the run to Top 8 in winners. If he can take down Earth, Mew2King, Mr. R, and Nietono, he’ll be sitting safely back in Top 8, though this time in the losers bracket. While we can likely see ANTi still get as high as top 3 in either bracket, his tournament life will be at steak the whole time as it’ll be through losers, rather than the safety of winners.
With the new changes in Top 32 (which you can see in the Google Doc linked above), I would estimate the new current seeds to be:
- TSM ZeRo
- Liquid Nairo
- Larry Lurr
- LLL Mr. R
- DNG Nietono
- Echofox Mew2King
- SF Hyuga
- juice.Max Ketchum
- CT Salem
- TA Fatality
It’s interesting to see that with the changes made, we’re set to no longer see K9sbruce, Kirihara, or Scatt in the Top 32, and now see Vinnie, NAKAT, and Max Ketchum. People would not expect to see Max Ketchum here, but the changes netted him perhaps the easiest Round 2 pool, really only needing to defeat Ayuha, Day, or Bizzaro Flame in order to make it to Top 32 losers, and luckily bypassing the intermediate Round 3 of pools. Otherwise, the seeding changes between players already there netted Anti one of the lowest Top 32 seeds as well, dropping down from the previous 4th seed, now all the way down to 29th near Ally.
What do you think of these changes? I feel like the previous Top 32 seeding was much closer, and should be reverted with changes more carefully made. If you know who is in control of making the bracket changes, let us know on Twitter @Smash4Unet, as I would be glad to assist them!