When Evo came around last summer I spent days predicting how the bracket would play out and see who could make the top. After pools have been released yesterday for Smash 4 at Genesis 3, I’ve been hard at work seeing how this monumental event might play out. Genesis 3 might not have quite as many entrants as Evo 2015, but the skill is there, and is without a doubt going to be the most stacked Smash 4 tournament in the title’s building history.
Pools are available to view here on Smash.GG. The only issue is that pools are listed as groups of people, and not specific brackets, so we don’t know how players will be seeded into losers (which side they will end up on), and how early certain players will meet in winners. Because of this in my predictions I had to simply randomize where the 2 promoted losers from round 1 of pools will end up in round 2. This could lead to some inaccurate predicted placements for those in losers that don’t make it out of round 2, though everything should hold up for all of winners bracket, and most of losers in top 32.
Genesis 3’s Smash 4 tournament consists of 4 parts: Round 1 Pools, Round 2 Pools, Top 32, and Top 8. All of Round 1 pools will be played out on Friday until we have a top 192, which will be played on Saturday until a Top 8 is reached. Players will start in one of 64 different pools, where one player will advance through winners, and two players will advance through losers. The losers will generally appear on opposite sides of the bracket going into round 2, so the two players advancing from a Round 1 pool in losers do not face each other right away (to help avoid double elimination), but may fight again if they both make it far in their Round 2 pool.
In the 2nd round, the remaining 192 players will be split into 8 different pools, where they will face each other until 4 remain: 2 in winners, 2 in losers. These players are then promoted to the Top 32 of the tournament, where they will continue a double elimination bracket until the final Top 8 that plays on Sunday.
Round 1 Prediction
I have gone through all 64 pools and written out who I believe will complete the pool in winners, and the two players who will complete the pool in losers. Note that it is tough to find every skilled player throughout the 1,000+ entrants, especially due to the large amount of out of country competition ready for Genesis 3. Any spot with “–” means I wasn’t able to find a player I believe would make it out of pools in that spot.
Bold Predictions: MJG > DJ Jack in Pool C45; GimR not making it out of Pool B47
Round 2 Prediction
Round 2 is a very key part of the event where you will start to see many good players taper off as the event reaches the coveted Top 32. Most players in this part of the tournament are certainly notable, and many matchups could go either way. Some of the losers brackets here may not play out the same way I have them here, since I had to randomize the placement that the two advanced losers from Round 1 will end up in. The further the losers bracket go, the more accurate they should become.
Bold Predictions: Cacogen > NickRiddle in Pool H41; Ryo > Earth in Pool H41; MJG > Trela in Pool I42; Xzax > MVD in Pool H44; Regi Shikimi > Tearbear in Pool H45
Top 32 Prediction
This is where the event truly heats up. Over 95% of the entrants have been eliminated, and all eyes are on the remaining Top 32 to make it to that Top 8. Honestly, most matchups here could go either way. This part of the bracket will be riddled with upsets and excitement.
Bold Predictions: 9B > Dabuz; VoiD > Abadango
Top 8 Prediction
I hate to break it to all the viewers, but I think we’re going to see another ZeRo vs Nairo Winners Finals. Not that it’s a bad thing, these to players are some of the best the game has to offer, but it’s a matchup we’ve seen many times. I think the more exciting part of the winners bracket will be watching ZeRo and Nairo both overcome their Winners Semis matches, where both of them will lose at least one game.
The biggest shake up in losers may come from Komorikiri, the Sonic and Cloud player from Japan. If all here plays out as I think, ESAM and Komorikiri will face off in Losers Eighths in what I think will be the biggest nail-biter of the tournament. I think ESAM will be able to clutch out the win in the end, but he won’t be able to make it past Ranai in the next round. If we see Ally learning his mistakes from Winners with potentially losing to Ranai, we could see him go up against Nairo in Losers Finals to make top 3 at this major, an opponent who he has beaten in the past.
Agree or disagree? I want to know! Tweet @Smash4Unet and let us know. Disappointed in where you ended up in my prediction? Prove me wrong 😉
In my next article I’ll be outlining some of the best potential matchups you’ll want to watch throughout the tournament.