Hopefully The Final Revision of Evo Pools Analyzed Here

We’re on the fourth revision of Evo pools, and the third article here analyzing them. You all know the drill by now, lets see what has changed and predictions for the top 32 bracket. We’ll keep this one a bit more brief and highlight some of the interesting points in the bracket.

Here is my Google Doc of data if you want to see some of my predictions and how the bracket progresses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16hNhUPRJtPqqWN_kAxivOCOnk6BKbHxok6sStqQV-DE/edit?usp=sharing
Orange highlight in Round 1 means this predicted result was changed since Revision 2.

Round 1 Close Matchups:

  • el vs Pugswest in C510
  • Tweek vs Umeki in C517
  • Kei vs Rich Brown in D518
  • MK~Iori vs Luck in D517

Round 2 Close Matchups:

  • Vinnie vs PG MVD in G502
  • Zinoto vs CT Salem in G504
  • False vs Naifu HIKARU in G505
  • Wrath vs Ito in G506
  • Echofox Mew2King vs Earth in G509
  • Shaky vs ATR Xaltis in G510
  • E2C Tyroy vs CS Waymas in G513
  • Marss vs DNG Nietono in G516
  • Falln vs TA Fatality in G517

Round 3 Close Matchups:

  • Falln vs NME Zex in H504
  • Echofox Mew2King vs Tweek in H505
  • Echofox Mew2King vs Umeki in H505
  • Zenyou vs PG MVD in H506
  • False vs Ito in H508
  • Liquid Nairo vs ESAM in H509
  • 9B vs ESAM in H509
  • Earth vs Shaky in H510

Approximate Top 32 Seeds (17-32 is harder to tell):

  1. TSM ZeRo
  2. Liquid Nairo
  3. dT Dabuz
  4. ANTi
  5. Mr. R
  6. Ally
  7. Larry Lurr
  8. Zinoto
  9. VoiD
  10. Abadango
  11. Marss
  12. Kamemushi
  13. Tweek
  14. Komorikiri
  15. Ranai
  16. SF Hyuga
  17. Ito
  18. NME Xzax
  19. FOW
  20. Echofox Mew2King
  21. Ned
  22. DNG Nietono
  23. 6WX
  24. PG MVD
  25. CT Salem
  26. K9sbruce
  27. Rain
  28. 9B
  29. SS
  30. Shaky
  31. falln
  32. Vinnie

The logic used for calculating Top 32 seeds is as follows:

  • Predict the bracket as far as possible.
  • The 16 players in Top 32 winners are seeds 1-16. Start with ZeRo at #1, and figure out seeds 2-16 based on everyone’s placement in bracket and predicted result. The only close uncertainty here is Abadango and Larry Lurr, and while Abadango is up 1-0 on Larry and may make it further in winners than him, Larry would arguably be an overall higher seed going into the event.
  • Since the losers bracket plays out pretty awkwardly throughout the event, the way this is approximated is different. First, players in Top 32 losers make up seeds 17-32.
  • For each of the players, figure out who they lost to from seeds 1-16 earlier in the event. Place them in the seed based on who they lost to. For instance, in seeds 17=32, whoever lost to ZeRo earlier (seed 1), would be placed in seed 32.
  • Repeat this for every player in the 17-32 group that did lose to a top 16 seed earlier in the bracket. This applied for all players except for four of them: Ito, MVD, Shaky, and K9sbruce.
  • I filled in the remaining four players in the empty four slots left in 17-32 based on the difficulty of their opponents earlier in the bracket. The player with the easier opponents (Ito) was placed in the highest spot of the open slots, and the player with the hardest matchups earlier on (Shaky), was placed in the lowest slot.

Predicted Top 8:

Winners:

TSM ZeRo vs dT ANTi
dT Dabuz vs Liquid Nairo

Losers:

Mr. R vs Ranai
Abadango vs Ally

CT Chibo

Chibo is a long time member of the competitive Smash community, dating back to Super Smash Bros. Melee in 2007. He has shown prowess as a competitor, tournament organizer, live streamer, and more. Chibo is the owner of CLASH Tournaments, one of the leading media providers for the Smash community.

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